Might it be less costly to the United States and more conducive to democracy, to allow the kinds of modifications that occurred in the map of Europe after the fall of communism? After all, the states of Iraq and Afghanistan were founded at about the same time as Czechoslovakia. And if the present configurations of Iraq and Afghanistan inherently encourage dictatorship and warlordism, what is the U.S. interest in perpetuating them? More importantly, is the United States prepared to sacrifice treasure and lives to maintain them?

I ask these questions; I haven't answered them. I am familiar with the objections, and the quarters from which they might come. And the eve of an Iraq war is not the time for planners to discuss the issue, at least in public. But it is certainly not too early to begin thinking about it—and where can that be done, without commitment, if not on a weblog like this?

One thing I will say: only someone with no sense of Middle Eastern history believes that its map will never change again. The question is not whether it will be redrawn, but when and where, by whom and in whose favor.